If you’re interested in listening to some really fascinating lectures, check out the Long Now Foundation podcast. The goal of the Long Now Foundation is to promote long term thinking — where long term is on the order of 10,000 years. They’ve rounded up some really fascinating people, including Peter Diamandis (the X-Prize founder), Brian Eno, the Dyson siblings, Bruce Sterling, Ray Kurzweil, and dozens of others.
There’s around 50 lectures currently available. Definitely worth checking out.
I’m starting to think that that the greedy assholes who got us into this financial crisis are the same ones who are saying “trust us, we know how to fix this, all you have to do is give us your money.”
I’ve been trying to sort out a pretty simple question: when the government starts cutting fat checks to financial institutions … who is getting the money, and why?
Seriously. I don’t want to hear “it protects the integrity of the financial system” because that explains nothing. I haven’t seen any clear explanations of how this bail out works. The media is worthless on the topic. Every time I read an “analysis” I end up with the same question: who’s getting my money, and why?
The only concrete facts I’ve found are in the bailout proposal. Simply put, it authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to buy mortgages with no strings attached and no oversight, while protecting him against any legal or administrative review. Not particularly confidence inspiring. [update: thankfully, the proposal has been amended to provide some teeth and oversight]
Following the dollars doesn’t get me anywhere either. First, I pay my taxes. Second, a guy who demonstrably sucks at at fiscal policy uses his best judgement to buy bad debt from a herd of banks. Then what?
I really hope I’m missing something here, because it looks like the people who caused this entire crisis are still in the pilot’s seat, are still making a grip of cash, and are being relieved of the problems they created, all at my expense. I don’t see any incentive for reform in the private sector, and I don’t see any incentive for the government decision makers to behave responsibly.
To be clear, I’m not trying to be a negative nelly, and I really don’t have a problem with paying the money. If my share of the $700B helps prevent us from returning to a financial stone age and a banking monopoly, I’m all for it. I just want to have some confidence that there are sound economic principals behind the actions, that there is a reasonable system of checks and balances to help protect against further abuse, and that the dickheads who got us into this mess aren’t buying new yachts.
I hope my economic angst can be soothed by the collective intelligence of the Internet. Or, more likely, one of my friends who works in the financial sector and has an educated opinion on the matter.
Who’s getting the money, and why?
Yesterday, a quarter million people in Africa joined the global communication network when they bought their first mobile phone.
The number of new mobile phone accounts has been growing at a rock solid 10% per quarter for the last five years — an exponential growth curve. If the trend continues, 80% of Africans could have a mobile phone within the next three years. That’s half a billion new people gaining the ability to instantly communicate beyond their immediate surroundings, to share news, to conduct businesses, to connect with people anywhere in the world — not just through voice, but also through data: SMS, e-mail, and the web.
Of course there are political, cultural, and technical issues to be overcome to maintain this phenomenal growth rate. The curve will inevitably flatten and slow as the market saturates.
Never the less, another quarter million people will become connected today.
And tomorrow.
And the day after.
What is this leading to?
These are the thoughts that keep me up at night.
Imagine that every village in Africa had a small box. Each day, the people in the village would tell the box what they had to sell, and what they needed: food, tools, livestock, and services. Some days, the box would travel with one of the village children to the local school. Other days, it would travel with an adult to the local market.
When the little boxes come close to each other at the school, or in the market, they exchange information. While the children are learning, and while the adults are working, the boxes are finding opportunities — discovering who has corn to sell, who can service a tractor, who wants to buy a chicken. In the blink of an eye, in the casual passing of strangers on the road, the boxes are silently comparing and discovering the inventory of entire villages.
A match is found, and the boxes chime. The strangers greet each other and negotiate the exchange.
Now, imagine that a school teacher is trusted to carry information from all of the villages her school serves. At a small monthly gathering of educators, the inventory of hundreds of villages is compared, and the network grows beyond the local community.
At a regional market, a vendor sells mobile telephone time.
Through the mobile phone network, the little box connects to a central market. In an instant, the inventory of the whole nation is available to the village, and the village is available to the nation.
Through the network, the little box connects to a bank. The little box understands different currencies, and can conduct transactions around the world.
Today, that little box can be mass produced for under $200 — it’s roughly equivalent to an iPhone. In ten years, it could be made, distributed, and sold for under $10, a price point that makes it accessible to billions of people and millions of villages around the world.
What keeps me from sleeping is the knowledge that everything described above is possible, with today’s technology. That’s exciting. It gets my blood pumping.
It makes me want to do something.
This morning I listened to a presentation about how mobile phones are a significant catalyst for economic and political change in the developing world. The case is compelling: mobile phones are productivity tools that allow people to more efficiently buy and sell goods, share important news, and coordinate activities across greater distances. Political change precipitates from this process, because mass communication and economic empowerment give disenfranchised people a voice in the political process.
That’s the first wave of technology driven change that most people in the world will experience. It’s happening right now, and it’s changing the lives of millions.
Which gets me thinking — in ten years it could cost under $10 to build a mobile device equivalent to the iPhone, thanks to Moore’s Law. With an open source operating system (like Google’s Android), and an open hardware platform (like the Neo FreeRunner), a remarkable new level of capability and opportunity will be available to the people and communities who can only afford bare bones mobile phones today.
What happens when a village gets e-mail? What happens when an individual can pre-buy and pre-sell their goods in a much larger market? When complex personal and business interactions can be documented and time shifted? When microloans, expert advice, and education is just a tap away, and literacy becomes a critical part of every day life?
I suspect the answers are good. Economic empowerment. Social enlightenment. Political reform.
I think mobile phones are the fastest and most obvious way for these tools to get to the people who need them most. I’m interested in connecting with people who are similarly inclined. Who should I talk with?
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